The Russian automobile market is gradually getting used to a new reality: importing a car from abroad is becoming increasingly expensive, and traditional methods of purchasing foreign cars are losing their economic appeal. However, the government has no plans to stop increasing the recycling fee. Starting January 1, 2027, rates will increase by another 10-20%, and then indexation will continue until 2030.
The scale of the changes is clearly illustrated by the example of popular models. The estimated recycling fee for the new Geely Monjaro in 2026 is approximately 1.01 million rubles. Next year, the fee will increase by approximately another 306,000 rubles. For a Toyota RAV4 with a 2.5-liter engine, the additional burden will be approximately 248 thousand rubles.
A contradiction arises: imports are already reacting to the current restrictions, with some supply routes demonstrating a significant decline, while the financial burden continues to increase. Why are the authorities pursuing this strategy, and what consequences could it have for buyers, Russian factories, and the entire automotive market?
The recycling fee has become an instrument for redistributing the automotive market
When the recycling fee was introduced in Russia in 2012, its official purpose was to finance the future recycling of vehicles.
Over time, the meaning of the fee has changed. Today, it has effectively become one of the main instruments for regulating automotive imports and supporting domestic production.
The mechanism works quite simply: the higher the rate, the greater the mandatory costs associated with importing a car. The importer includes these in the cost price, while the end consumer faces a higher price.
At the same time, industrial support mechanisms are provided for Russian manufacturers. Companies that meet localization requirements can receive compensation payments related to the level of Russian production and the use of local components.
Thus, the state creates different economic conditions for imported and localized cars.
In the long term, this should encourage foreign companies and their partners to organize production within the country. If constantly paying an increasing import tax becomes unprofitable, local assembly may prove a more attractive alternative.
But there is an important nuance: organizing production requires investment, time, suppliers, and stable demand. Not every car brand is ready to invest in localization, especially if the market outlook remains uncertain.
The reduction in Korean imports has become a telling signal
One of the most obvious examples of the impact of the new rules was South Korea.
In the first eight months of 2026, approximately 23 thousand used Korean cars were imported to Russia. This is 63% less than in the same period a year earlier.
However, the change in the composition of supplies is even more interesting. In 2025, cars with an engine capacity of over 160 hp accounted for about 84% of Korean used car imports. Now their share is approximately 12%.
Such dynamics show how strongly financial conditions can influence the choice of cars.
Suppliers began to focus on models that are more affordable in terms of import conditions. Buyers, in turn, are forced to consider not only the vehicle’s age, mileage, trim level, and technical condition, but also engine power.
The 160-hp threshold has acquired particular significance due to the current rules for calculating the preferential recycling fee for certain categories of individuals.
It is important not to confuse engine power with the unconditional right to the discount. Vehicle specifications, length of ownership, purpose of import, and other legal requirements are also important.
For the Russian market, this means the gradual disappearance of some of the familiar selection. Cars with more powerful engines will not necessarily disappear completely, but their import is becoming significantly more difficult from an economic point of view.
Chinese cars are taking the place of declining imports
It is significant that the reduction in Korean deliveries is occurring against the backdrop of an increase in the import of used cars from China.
From January to August 2026, about 75 thousand used cars were imported from China. This is almost twice the result for the same period last year.
The reasons for this dynamic are related to the peculiarities of the Chinese automobile market. It offers a huge selection of models, including sedans, crossovers, and hybrid cars with various powertrain characteristics.
For Russian buyers, this opens up additional opportunities. Instead of the usual Korean or Japanese models, you can consider Chinese-made cars, which are suitable in terms of price and import conditions.
However, such a reorientation has a downside. Buyers don’t always get a fully-fledged alternative to their usual car. Trim levels, multimedia system settings, spare parts availability, warranty obligations, and subsequent service options may differ.
Therefore, increased imports from China cannot automatically be considered a full-fledged replacement for declining supplies from other countries.
In fact, the recycling tax changes not only the volume of automobile imports but also their structure. The Russian market is gradually adapting to the new rules, and suppliers are looking for ways to maintain an acceptable final cost for vehicles.
Why budget forecasts are forcing a strategy review
Another important aspect is the financial effectiveness of the recycling fee.
High rates do not guarantee a steady increase in revenue. If import costs become excessive, some importers refuse to supply. As a result, the state receives an increased payment for each imported vehicle, but the number of such vehicles may decrease.
According to the forecasts provided, just two years ago, expected revenue from imported vehicles in 2026 was approximately 1.25 trillion rubles. Now the estimate has dropped to approximately 561 billion rubles.
This is a significant discrepancy, which demonstrates the problem of an excessive increase in the financial burden: an increase in the rate may be accompanied by a reduction in the tax and payment base.
At the same time, the total budget expectations for the recycling fee for 2027 amount to approximately 2 trillion rubles.
It is assumed that approximately 633 billion rubles will come from imported cars and equipment, and approximately 1.36 trillion rubles will come from Russian-made vehicles.
This structure shows that the government is counting on a gradual change in revenue sources. While imports previously played a significant role in the formation of payments, now the main financial burden in the forecasts falls on domestic production.
However, it is important to take into account that revenue from Russian-made cars is not equivalent to additional profits for auto factories. The mechanism of industrial support and compensation affects the final financial results of enterprises.
Why are the Geely Monjaro and Toyota RAV4 becoming less affordable
For the average buyer, this entire economic structure ultimately comes down to the cost of a specific car.
The Geely Monjaro and Toyota RAV4 are interesting because they represent different directions of demand. The first car belongs to the popular segment of Chinese crossovers, the second remains a sought-after model of Japanese origin.
An increase in the recycling fee increases the costs of their import, but the final price depends on many additional factors.
Among them:
- the ruble exchange rate to settlement currencies;
- the cost of the car on the foreign market;
- delivery and logistics;
- customs duties;
- intermediaries and importers’ costs;
- the seller’s commercial markup.
Therefore, it cannot be said that an increase in the recycling fee 306 thousand rubles will inevitably lead to a similar increase in the price of the Geely Monjaro. The seller can partially offset the additional costs through its own margin or purchase terms.
However, it is also unrealistic to expect that such expenses will not be reflected in the final price.
Cars that are not locally produced and are completely dependent on alternative supply channels are especially vulnerable.
Will Russian car factories get new customers?
The main idea behind raising the recycling fee is to make localized cars more competitive.
If a foreign car becomes hundreds of thousands of rubles more expensive, the difference with Russian models may narrow. For some buyers, this will indeed be an argument in favor of domestically produced cars.
But there is a problem: the high cost of an imported car does not mean that the consumer will automatically have the money to buy a new Russian one.
The additional burden can lead to several scenarios.
The first is a transition to localized models.This is the most desirable result for the state and manufacturers. Increased demand will help maintain the workload of enterprises and develop production.
The second is a change in the import structure.Buyers will choose less powerful cars, more affordable trim levels, and models that are more profitable to import from abroad.
The third is the growth of the secondary market. If new cars become too expensive, interest in used cars may increase. This is especially true for relatively new vehicles with a clear service history.
The fourth is refusal to purchase. Some Russians will simply continue driving their existing vehicles, postponing replacement until a more favorable time.
It is this last scenario that is particularly risky. It does not provide additional demand for either Russian automakers or importers.
The main risk is the further aging of the Russian vehicle fleet.
Increasing the recycling fee has a consequence that is not always taken into account when discussing budget revenues and industrial policy.
If the cost of new cars rises faster than household incomes, the average service life of existing vehicles may increase.
A buyer who previously planned to replace the car in a few years will be forced to postpone the purchase. As a result, older and higher-mileage vehicles will remain on the roads longer.
For the used market, this could mean increased demand for good vehicles, continued high prices, and stiffer competition for vehicles with a proven service history.
For auto repair shops, on the contrary, the volume of work on repairing and restoring the aging fleet could increase.
It is important to distinguish between two processes: a reduction in imports and a reduction in overall automotive demand. The first can support local production, the second can negatively affect almost the entire market.
What will change for buyers in 2027
The latest increase in the recycling fee confirms that Russian automotive policy is moving towards long-term limitation of price competition from imports and stimulation of domestic production.
For buyers, this means that when choosing a car, they will have to consider the total cost of purchase even more carefully.
It is especially important to consider not only the price of the car abroad, but also all associated costs: delivery, customs clearance, recycling fee, registration and subsequent maintenance.
At the same time, buying a car before the next indexation does not always guarantee savings. It is necessary to take into account delivery times, the moment the obligation to pay the fee arises, and the current rules for calculating the payment.
The main question of 2027 is no longer how much the price of imported cars will increase, but where demand will go after the next increase in the recycling fee. If buyers switch en masse to localized models, the state will achieve the desired industrial effect. If Russians simply start driving older cars longer, the rate increase could lead to a reduction in fleet renewal without a comparable increase in sales of domestic cars.
